Market Recap for 11/12/08 at 8:35 pm cst
by J. Alan Feild
I wrote this comment at the end of my comments yesterdaay. "Also, this is very interesting. One indication of economic slowdown in China is their demand for cotton. China consumes approximately 50% of the annual production of cotton in the world. Check out what is happening to global cotton prices. Cotton at the ICE Exchange made a 5 1/2 year low today. The textile industry in China is the country's 2nd largest industry, and it certainly makes sense that if China is slowing down import of cotton to make socks, towels, shorts, pants, ... then it's likely because of a drop in consumer demand in that country." if demand of gas or crude oil is so bad that people can't even afford fuel for their cars, say, $1.90/gal, and more than 50% less than the price was only 3 months ago, then that ain't good. Just imagine how bad the Christmas shopping season is going to be. Mime is going to be horrible anyway, but don't have many presents to buy anyway, but point being if people can't even afford fuel to drive, say, not to work, because they will buy fuel for that, but not on weekend, then less shoppng and presents will be bought over the next month and a half. That doesn't spell well for any kind of retailer or e-tailer, ... That will probably mean more empty commercial retail leases, less income for the likes of CB Richard Ellis's and so on.
OK, today's stock market activit was really bad. The market tried to rally early and early in the evening last night in the overnight trade, but it couldn't. What is that telilng us? Simple, that the market wants to head lower. Also, the chart of the Dow, S&P 500, and the E-Mini S&P 500 aren't oeversold by any means. I just don't think anyone is going to buy the market until it's really cheap, and according to the RSIs the market is a long ways from being cheap. So, let's add us what's going on. Expectation for the short-term, notably the holiday shopping season are dismal, global economies aren't doing good, namely China, key stock market indicies and the Dow Jones are in downtrends and not oversold, consumer confidence is on all time lows, basically ever credit industry home, car, and student loans need finanacial credit funding/support, and hey, the market is telling us that it wants to trade down. my recommendation is traders won't get in it way. We going lower to, in my opinion, new lower lows this week for the stock market and stock market indicies. by JAFeild JAFeild@yahoo.com
